September 2025 Market Comments: Nvidia and Tech Surge

“My Name Is”, Eminem, 1999

You probably didn’t know much about me 10 years ago, when the incredible Information Technology-led rally started, my name is, who? I’m the largest market cap ever, my name is, what? I’m the poster child of all Artificial Intelligence hopes, my name is, who? I invest billions of dollars in Intel or Open AI, my name is, what? My market cap has risen 14 fold in the last 3 years, my name is, who?
My name is Nvidia, and I’m neither slim, nor shady.
With an all-time high reached on the 30st of September, Nvidia is a USD 4.5 trillion market cap company, which is more than France and Germany’s total combined market cap; it also represents 70% of the total market cap of Japan, which, 40 years ago, was supposedly set to be the winner-takes-it-all in Technology.
How did we get there? Barring Nvidia’s products and services quality, the company is at the forefront of the AI thematic and is among the largest beneficiaries from the gargantuan capex deployed by Information Technology and Communication Services leaders, who fall into the famous FOMO situation: they all fear of missing out compared to their peers in the race to AI dominance, hence an unstoppable thirst for the latest and most advanced semiconductors. What is fascinating is that Nvidia shrugs off all possible threats that could jeopardize its leadership and market performance: competition (who doesn’t dream of 60% + Ebitda margins?), politics and geopolitics (export control for example), valuation limits (25 times revenues, usually a pricey IPO level) and more recently questionable circular investments (100 billion in Open AI, one of Nvidia’s largest clients, in order to facilitate Open AI’s acquisition of even more Nvidia’s chips).

September 2025 saw equities marching ahead, with the MSCI World up 3.1%, the S&P 500 3.5%, the Nasdaq 5.4%, the Stoxx 600 Europe 1.5%, Emerging Markets 7% and Japan 2%. With IT leading again, Growth vastly outperformed Value (+4.5% versus +1.5%).
Despite much noise around deficits, inflation, economic growth and a looming US shutdown, Government bonds were relatively stable with yields a tad lower. Credit continues to thrive, as demonstrated by the +1.1% recorded by the Itraxx Crossover, now up 6.4% year to date.
Possible increases in OPEC output hammered Oil prices, down 2.6% for the month and 13% for the year (in USD, which means that they’re down more than 25% in euro terms), the dollar got lower again against all currencies, which can explain the exceptional month and year for Gold (+11.9% in September, +47% in 2025) and the strong Bitcoin, up 5.1% for the month and 22.3% for the year so far.

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