When science meets art: choosing the right manager.
Managing a multi hedge fund managers portfolio or a fund of funds, generally implies that, as the manager of such portfolio, you need to consider 3 main characteristics during your selection process from an investment point of view, (leaving aside the operational aspects intentionally for now).
- Quality
- Risk/return profile
- Individual correlation
The first one is universal and resides in the intrinsic quality of a hedge fund manager, meaning his ability to generate consistent returns in line with his proposed strategy specifications and within a corresponding time horizon. It also takes into consideration the pedigree of the main decision maker, the experience and competence of the research team.
However, this intrinsic quality leaves quite some room for interpretation as for the investment rational, since this hedge fund will be part of whole group supposedly targeting a certain return objective and potentially a risk constraint. Picking a hedge fund exclusively on these terms may have, however, undesirable impacts.
Therefore 2 other characteristics? come to consideration in that context, so to maintain the integrity of the pool and to contribute to your diversification requirements.
The first one relates to the risk/return profile of the hedge fund you are selecting. This profile provides a strong indicator as per its return capability vs. its risk level, often looked at as its volatility of returns. The more the profile is detached from the other components of the portfolio, the more diversification it is expected to contribute to the portfolio. The Sharpe ratio is an indicator of such profile, but it is not sufficient to identify the hedge fund actual positioning vs. your other investments (Graph 1).
Graph 1: Risk Return Profile. Source: NS Partners
The second characteristic is the individual correlation of the hedge fund you are selecting to each of the other components of the portfolio. The lower the correlation the better additional contribution to diversification this new hedge fund brings to the mix. It is generally accepted that a correlation of 0.5 or lower is preferable, a negative correlation being considered as the best possible situation, all other conditions being validated, i.e profitable with an acceptable level of risk (Table 1).
Table 1 : Correlation analysis. Source: Ns Partners
From there, one need to appreciate that these characteristics bear some subjective factors, not in absolute terms since a ratio is a ratio. But it is only a ratio. Meaning that as a portfolio manager of a fund of funds you still decide what ratio is acceptable and in what range of profile and correlation do you allow your portfolio to be allocated to. I can’t deny that a few years of experience, multiple market cycles proven resilience are co-substantial to rational choices. Nevertheless, it is probably where science meets art.
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