Investment

Informe de inversión trimestral – 3T 2022

by James Macpherson

Informe de inversión trimestral – 3T 2022

Las perspectivas económicas mundiales se han visto ensombrecidas por algunos nubarrones. La crisis energética acapara los titulares cada día y genera importantes problemas políticos. La economía china sigue viéndose afectada por su política de «cero covid» y el deterioro de su mercado inmobiliario. La inflación se sitúa en niveles inéditos en Occidente desde hace décadas. Además, al final del trimestre, una declaración presupuestaria radical y mal comunicada en el Reino Unido provocó un desplome preocupante de la libra esterlina y los gilts británicos. Así las cosas, no es de extrañar que los mercados se hayan visto sometidos a presiones. Las acciones han registrado su peor primer semestre del año desde 1962. Al final del tercer trimestre, el índice mundial había caído un 26% y el Nasdaq un 32%. La tecnología, que ha sido con mucha diferencia el sector que mejor se ha comportado en la última década, ha concentrado mucho capital, por lo que ha sufrido incluso más que el índice general. El mercado de renta fija se ha comportado aún peor y, según algunos análisis, 2022 está siendo el peor año para los bonos desde 1788 y 1865. Es un entorno que plantea muchos interrogantes de difícil respuesta. ¿Cómo evolucionará la guerra en Ucrania? ¿Podrá la solidaridad europea con Ucrania sobrevivir a un invierno frío? ¿Hasta qué punto controla China su sector inmobiliario, si recordamos que el sector inmobiliario chino es ahora el mayor activo financiero del mundo? ¿Qué sucede si los bancos centrales se quedan sin margen para subir los tipos debido a la situación de su deuda nacional, pero la inflación se mantiene alta? Dicho de otra manera, ¿cómo responderían los bancos centrales a una depresión inflacionista? Esta podría producirse por la persistencia de precios elevados de los alimentos y la energía, así como por la alteración de las cadenas de suministro.

Muchas de estas incertidumbres se reducen a la inflación y al coste de la vida. Algunas subidas de precios se deben a las persistentes secuelas de la covid-19, pues la escasez de componentes críticos, como los semiconductores, se ha visto agravada por el confinamiento de China. La invasión de Ucrania por parte de Rusia constituye un grado de perturbación totalmente diferente. La dependencia de Europa del gas ruso, por ejemplo, supone un error estratégico descomunal. ¿Cómo pueden prosperar las economías europeas cuando sus precios de la electricidad se multiplican por cinco o por diez?

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Antonio Mira
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret
DEPUTY HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi
BOARD DIRECTOR

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up Alibaba.com’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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