Investment

Commentaires de marchés – Avril

by Pierre Mouton

Commentaires de marchés – Avril

“Jump around” – House of Pain, 1992.

Devrions-nous “Jump around”, comme le recommande la chanson mythique de House of Pain ? Peut-être, car l’examen des rendements de la plupart des marchés financiers depuis le début de l’année donne de nombreuses raisons de sauter, en particulier dans l’environnement économique et géopolitique très incertain auquel les investisseurs doivent faire face en 2023 ; plus encore si l’on remonte à la fin de l’année 2022, lorsque la communauté des investisseurs semblait désemparée après une année aussi médiocre.

À la fin du mois d’avril 2023, le MSCI World est en hausse de 8,96%, le S&P500 de 8,59%, le MSCI Europe de 10,08% et le Topix de 8,76% (le seul retardataire en matière d’actions étant le MSCI Emerging Markets, mais il est encore en hausse de 2.16% depuis le début de l’année) ; le crédit brille également, avec l’Itraxx Crossover en hausse de 4,79% depuis le début de l’année ; les obligations d’État ont leur mot à dire, avec des rendements américains à 10 ans en baisse de 45 points de base en 2023, des rendements allemands à 10 ans de 26 points de base et des rendements italiens à 10 ans de 70 points de base. Qu’en est-il des matières premières ? La situation n’est pas aussi simple : certaines augmentent, comme l’or (+9,1% depuis le début de l’année), d’autres baissent, comme le pétrole (-4,34%).

Ces chiffres nous permettent d’établir une chaîne logique d’événements : l’activité économique devrait ralentir, d’où un pic probable dans la politique d’austérité des banques centrales dans un avenir proche, et les rendements à long terme devraient baisser. Ces derniers ont un impact considérable sur les valorisations qui, sans surprise, repartent à la hausse ; ainsi, le MSCI World Growth, plus cher, humilie le MSCI World Value, moins cher, en 2023 jusqu’à présent (+16,58% pour le premier, +1,94% pour le second). Le ralentissement de l’activité économique et la baisse des rendements favorisent l’or, au détriment du pétrole, ce qui explique le destin opposé des deux matières premières.

Enfin, le marché semble s’inquiéter de manière sélective d’une éventuelle crise bancaire aux États-Unis et de ses répercussions dans le monde entier. Les valeurs financières sous-performent mais ne s’effondrent pas dans l’ensemble.

“Jump up, jump up and get down” dit la chanson ; nous espérons que les marchés ne nous feront pas trop chuter prochainement !

 

 

 

 

Les performances passées ne garantissent pas les résultats futurs. Les opinions, stratégies et instruments financiers décrits dans le présent document peuvent ne pas convenir à tous les investisseurs. Les opinions énoncées sont celles valables à la date de publication de ce document. Toute référence aux indices de marches ou composites, indices de référence, ou autres mesures de performance relative des marches a une certaine période sont indiquées à titre d’information. NS Partners ne donne aucune garantie et n’est aucunement responsable de l’exactitude et de l’exhaustivité de l’ensemble des informations (données financières de marche, cours de bourse, avis de recherche ou description de tout autre instrument financier) contenus dans ce document. Le présent document n’est pas destiné aux personnes ou entités qui seraient citoyennes ou résidentes d’un lieu, état, pays ou juridiction dans lesquels sa distribution, sa publication, sa mise à disposition ou son utilisation seraient contraires aux lois ou règlements en vigueur. Les informations et données fournies dans le présent document sont communiquées à titre indicatif uniquement et ne constituent ni une offre, ni une incitation à acheter, vendre ou souscrire a des titres ou tout autre instrument financier. Il est fait référence dans ce document a des fonds d’investissement qui n’ont pas été enregistrés auprès de la Finma et ne peuvent donc pas être distribues en ou depuis la suisse sauf à certaines catégories d’investisseurs éligibles. Certaines des sociétés du groupe NS Partners ou ses clients peuvent être détenteurs d’une position dans les instruments financiers de l’un des émetteurs mentionnes dans ce document, ou agir en tant que consultant pour l’un d’eux. Des informations supplémentaires sont disponibles sur demande.

© Groupe NS Partners

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