May General Markets Comments
“Take the money and run”– The Steve Miller Band, 1976.
Are market participants in a “Take the money and run” mood in 2022? Perhaps, because on top of being extremely difficult this year, broad financial markets have shown high levels of volatility, which have been blatant in up moves like in down moves. May was the perfect illustration of this, and not only for Equities: the MSCI World did a round trip from -6.8% to + 8.1% to end up the month down a meagre 0.16%, US 10-year yields went from 2.91% to 3.20% and then all the way down to 2.7% and finished at 2.86%, WTI began at $105, travelled down to $98 and up to $ 118… well, you see the picture: sudden and significant gyrations, greed and fear in action at the same time.
This makes investors’ life uneasy. Temptation is high to take quick profits when there are some, and to sell rapidly on the downside in order to limit losses. Whatever the direction markets are headed to, people tend to take the money and run, even at a loss.
Sentiment is quite logically mixed: between rising Commodity prices and inflationary pressures, hawkish Central Banks, fears of a serious slowdown, not to say a recession, and geopolitical tensions, all financial markets are complicated. Will corporate earnings be jeopardized? Will interest rates stop climbing? When will Commodity markets start to ease? Why does Gold perform so poorly in such an environment?
After mid-May’s carnage, there’s some satisfaction to see muted drawdowns for equity markets, thanks to a strong rally in the second half of the month: the S&P 500 even gained 1 basis point, the Nasdaq abandoned 1.65%, the MSCI Europe 1.48%, but both the Japanese Topix and the MSCI Emerging Markets were up (+0.69% and +0.14% respectively). Value still prevailed and added 1.73% while Growth lost 2.39%. Yields moved up in Europe (+18 bps for the 10-year Bund and +34 bps for the Italian 10-year BTP) but slightly fell in the US (-10 bps for the US 10-year Treasury). Credit was mostly flat, Gold fell 3.14% and Commodities were up 2.68%, once again driven by Oil (+9.53% for the WTI).
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