September General Markets Comments
« Another one bites the dust » – Queen, 1980
Well, another one, and many others? Equity markets already did, as well as fixed-income securities overall. September saw the British Pound on its knees, Gold breaking down, Oil recording its largest loss this year and Credit Suisse’s CDS rising to 2008 levels; FedEx and Nike had very bad days on the stock exchange, and Italy’s spread versus Germany widens by the day . On the front, the Russian army also bit the dust and is losing ground.
All asset classes suffered in September, with the continuous pressure exerted by long term interest rates, which, once again, rose significantly.
With hindsight, it looks like under the direction of conductor Jerome Powell, we’re gradually picking up where we left off, before February 2020 and the Covid outbreak, which led to all kinds of excesses and aberrations, triggered by the profligacy of Central Banks and Governments.
The S&P 500 lost no less than 9.3% in September, and the Nasdaq 10.6%; the MSCI Emerging Markets sunk 11.9% and now lags all major indices, barring the Topix, which is only down 7.9% year-to-date (but the Yen cratered by 25.8% versus the dollar!). Growth stood behind Value, once again, and lost 10.2% last month; the MSCI World Growth is down 32.8% this year, versus -20.1% for the MSCI World Value. This has to be put in the context of ever rising interest rates: the US 10-year yield added 64 bps (+57 bps for Germany) and is now 232 bps higher than the level prevailing at the beginning of 2022 (+229 bps for the Bund). Oil abandoned 11.2% and Gold 3%. Credit somewhat resisted, with the Itraxx Crossover “only” down 41 bps.
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