Investment

Quarterly Investment Review – Q4 2021

by Cedric Dingens

Quarterly Investment Review – Q4 2021

In 2021 while the world wrestled with the Covid virus, and its evolving variants, the financial markets enjoyed another strong performance thanks to the enormous stimulus that Central Banks continued to provide. Authorities’ response to Covid in the last two years has produced the most stimulative monetary and fiscal policies since 1945. In the US, for example the total agreed and intended fiscal stimulus amounts to 35% of GDP, a sum comparable to the cost of the Second World War. Real interest rates are minus 4%, again the lowest since 1945; the economy has never gone into recession when real rates are negative. However, the debate has now turned to whether this gigantic stimulus is starting to stoke structural inflation. Inflation has reached 6.8% in the US, a 40-year high, and has been climbing all year, so Central Banks message that it is only transitory, is coming under scrutiny. The outcome is critical for 2022, because with markets awash with cash, if the stimulus is withdrawn quickly they look vulnerable as they show signs of significant excess. For example, in November the car company Tesla reached a valuation of $1.2 trillion. This was more than the next nine largest car companies combined, and left its founder, Elon Musk, worth more than Exxon. It was also double the value of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway which had profits in the first nine months of the year of $50 billion, compared to Tesla with only $36 billion in sales. A tightening of liquidity could dramatically impact companies such as Tesla which have benefited so much from the easy conditions of the last few years. Whether these conditions do change depends largely on the course of the virus and inflation.

As vaccines are rolled out globally, hope is rising that economic lockdowns will end. The scientific achievement in producing the vaccines is extraordinary, and highly profitable for some – the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is now the best-selling pharmaceutical product in history. Setbacks were occurred with the appearance of the Delta variant, and now Omnicrom. However, as vaccines armour plate the population, allowing us to live with Covid, the pandemic stage of the crisis will pass. This point is being reached faster in the West than in Emerging Markets but in these too progress is accelerating. New variants are always possible and further reversals cannot be ruled out, but on current information there appears to be a decent chance that Covid comes under control during the course of 2022. What 2021 made clear is that when permitted the recovery has been strong. If the vaccines succeed in a full reopening, then it will release considerable pent up demand, which will further inflame the inflation debate.

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Antonio Mira
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret
DEPUTY HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi
BOARD DIRECTOR

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up Alibaba.com’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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