Investment

Quarterly Investment Review – Q3 2024

by James Macpherson

Quarterly Investment Review – Q3 2024

Markets rose during the third quarter as most Central Banks started to ease policy by cutting interest rates, causing the yield on the US 10-year bond to fall from 4.40% to 3.78%. Stock markets moved up in tandem with the rate cuts, but this masked significant gyrations in early August. The combination of falling US interest rates and rising Japanese rates caused the yen to rise dramatically, and the Japanese market crashed 22% in three days. The VIX index, which measures volatility, reached its third highest ever reading. Most of these moves occurred within a few hours on the 5th and 6th August in thin trading, and the recovery was equally abrupt. By the end of the month the Japanese index had recovered everything when measured in dollars. However, the size of the moves indicates the potential vulnerability of markets even with relatively minor disruptions.

The rise in Japanese interest rates marks the end of the last source of free money in global markets. Since 2008 global Central Banks have kept interest rates close to zero and provided plentiful liquidity. The inflationary burst in 2022/23 brought this to an end and led most banks to raise interest rates and rein in liquidity, except in Japan. Japan was more reluctant to normalise its policy because it has spent the last thirty years escaping from a debt and deflationary bust caused by one of the largest property and stock market bubbles in history that peaked in 1989. It cut interest rates to zero in 1997, and from 2013 adopted an aggressive printing policy. As a result, Japanese money was pressured into seeking returns elsewhere, and Japanese liquidity has flooded world markets. These flows have supported asset prices but may start to retreat. Meanwhile the summer saw other developments. There were increasing signs that the US economy was less strong than previously thought with a record revision of US jobs numbers, and China’s economy has continued to disappoint. There were also signs that the dominance of the massive technology companies may be starting to wane. These three areas have been the major supports to the bull market in the last decade, so if they are deteriorating it will have significant implications for investors.

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Antonio Mira
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret
DEPUTY HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi
BOARD DIRECTOR

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up Alibaba.com’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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