Investment

Investment Review Q3 2018

by James Macpherson

“I think Trump may be one of those figures who appear in history from time to time to mark the end of an era and to force it to give up the old pretences.”

Henry Kissinger. 21.7.18

The third quarter was difficult in financial markets. Tightening liquidity as a result of the Federal Reserve’s increase in interest rates, escalating trade tensions, a rising oil price, and heightened worries on European stability with Brexit talks in a quagmire and a threat of Italy exiting the EU, all combined to undermine sentiment. However once again markets outside the US suffered most and by the end of the quarter the US equity market was at/near its highs. The US stock market is benefiting from a strong economy and the tax cuts that the Trump Administration achieved at the end of 2017. Goldman’s have estimated that share buybacks could reach almost one trillion dollars this year. This performance has been despite the rise in interest rates and bond yields as the ten-year rate rose to 3.05%. Outside the US surplus liquidity has been drained from the system exposing the weakest links, Argentina and Turkey’s currencies crashed and other Emerging Market assets suffered. This sharp divergence has been a feature of the last ten years. On the tenth anniversary of Lehman’s collapse and the ensuing financial crisis the surprise has been that while the US has had a weak economic recovery it was accompanied by a soaring stock market. The comparison to the Japanese experience following their collapse in 1990 could not be starker. Ten years after the Japanese bubble burst the Japanese Topix index was half its pre-crash level, while the S&P is up more than twice, and more than four times off its lows. Their bubbles were different, but a significant driver of the S&P’s recovery was the enormous share buybacks American companies have undertaken which Goldman Sachs estimates at $4.5 trillion over the last decade. This buyback program has been turbo charged by the Trump tax cuts with estimates that they will approach $1.5 trillion in 2018 alone.

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Antonio Mira
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret
DEPUTY HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi
BOARD DIRECTOR

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up Alibaba.com’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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