Investment

Quarterly Investment Outlook

by James Macpherson
The performance and current level of the world bond markets are extraordinary.
President Emmanuel Macron

The French example illustrates the bizarreness of this situation. French government debt reached €2.3 trillion at the end of 2018 and is estimated to expand by a further €80 billion this year, largely as a result of President Macron’s concessions to the gilet jaunes protestors. This puts its debt to GDP ratio at close to 100%, not as large as Italy’s but France’s debt is growing more quickly. France has not run a budget surplus since 1974 (before the current President was born), state spending is the highest of any country in the developed world at 56% of GDP, and it will be hard to raise taxes further as they are already the highest in the developed world at 46% of GDP having just overtaken Denmark, and the gilet jaunes movement indicates that the limits have been reached. It will also be challenging to grow out of this problem as economic growth has been lacklustre for several years. Most concerning of all is that France owes its debt in a currency that it does not control and cannot print, and most of it is borrowed from outside France (unlike say Italy where most of the debt is held internally). France has an outstanding credit record, not having defaulted since 1812, but it stands out among the negative yielding sovereign issuers for the combination of the poor profile of its finances and its inability to print money independently. It is irrational that such an issuer is paid for the debt it issues. For context, in the depths of the Great Depression of the early 1930’s when industrial production fell by a quarter the US ten year bond bottomed at a yield of 2.31%. Japan and a number of European countries’ debt markets are suggesting depression conditions, even though their economies are still growing.

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Antonio Mira
CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER, MEMBER OF THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret
DEPUTY HEAD OF WEALTH MANAGEMENT

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi
BOARD DIRECTOR

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up Alibaba.com’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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