January General Markets Comments
“C’est comme ça” – Les Rita Mitsouko, 1986.
“C’est comme ça” could be translated into “That’s the way it is”; most markets were up in January, after a very painful December, but looking a tad longer term, it appears that, in general, markets have ended January 2023 not very far from the levels reached at the end of July 2022, with in between very nice months and very bad months, a common feature of all these months being a high level of volatility, as the MSCI World has moved in excess of 4% on the way up or on the way down every single month since July. We have to cope with high volatility when so many things are highly different than during the period 2017-2021, c’est comme ça…
Reasons for such a different context are well-known: higher inflation, higher interest rates, hawkish central banks, rising commodity prices, supply-chain issues and the war in Ukraine. Added to that, equity, fixed-income and credit markets started 2022 with demanding valuations, and if the latter have indeed corrected since then, they can’t be considered as cheap today, still. This means that volatility should stay with us for a while, and very much attention will be paid to economic data as well as Central Banks’ responses.
But let’s enjoy the party so far: the S&P 500 rose 6.2% in January, buoyed by its IT and Communication Services components notably; in this context, the Nasdaq added 10.6% and the MSCI World Growth 9.7% (versus “only” +4.6% for the MSCI World Value). Europe and Emerging Markets fared well (+6.7% and +7.9% respectively), with Japan lagging a smidgen (but still up 4.4%).
The month was also good for fixed-income and credit, as the US and the German 10 year yields fell 37 and 29 bps respectively and the Itraxx Crossover gained 3%. Helped by lower yields and a weaker dollar (-1.5% versus the euro), Gold soared 5.7%, while Oil retreated by 1.7%.
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