
Quarterly Investment Review – Q4 2024

We don’t have inflation because the people are living too well. We have inflation because the government is living too well.
Ronald Reagan
All Government spending is taxation
Elon Musk
We all know what we need to do as politicians, we just don’t know how to get elected after we have done it.
Jean Claude Juncker
Quarterly Investment Review – Q4 2024
2024 saw the financial trends of 2023 extended. Equity markets produced strong returns, led by the US indices, with most of these returns generated by the giant technology companies. Performance was particularly strong after the victory of President Trump in the US Presidential election in early November. Most other markets in Europe and the Emerging world were more subdued. The US bond market suffered an unprecedented fourth year of decline. The US dollar remained strong against most of its international rivals, and gold had a strong return. Most remarkable was bitcoin which rose 120% during 2024.
The last quarter was dominated by the US election and Trump’s comprehensive victory. Unusually for a Republican candidate, he won the popular vote, as well as making a clean sweep of Congress, giving him a strong mandate to implement his policy platform. The result was a vote for less Government, and markets celebrated the promise of deregulation and lower taxes. The expected boost to growth is supportive of equities. So far markets have been unconcerned by the less market-friendly protectionist threats of the incoming Administration, such as the promise to curb immigration and impose draconian tariffs on foreign goods, both of which could increase prices. It is hard to say the extent to which these measures will be implemented. Judging by his first term Trump is more fluid in his policy making than other Presidents, and he will start this Administration with a different set of circumstances to his previous one.
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