Metals: the transition faces its limits

The depletion of deposits and the explosion in demand make the energy transition equation almost impossible to solve.

An increasingly voracious appetite for energy

Energy adaptation requires a dramatic increase in the consumption of base metals. Copper, zinc, nickel and cobalt are the invisible pillars of contemporary technologies such as electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, smart grid infrastructure and the massive data centres needed to deploy artificial intelligence. The latter, whose rapid growth requires exponential computing power, is driving global electricity demand to unprecedented heights. Yet, at the very moment when humanity needs it most, the mining industry faces a devastating paradox: deposits are becoming depleted while demand is skyrocketing.

Deposits that are inexorably becoming depleted

The data illustrates the scale of the challenge. For example, the average copper content of mines in Chile, the world’s leading producer, has fallen from 1% in the 1990s to around 0.6% today. This deterioration means that almost twice as much rock now has to be crushed to extract a tonne of red metal.
The phenomenon affects all strategic metals. Indonesian nickel mines now exploit low-grade laterites, while African cobalt deposits present increasing geological complexities. This deterioration is not cyclical, but structural: humanity naturally began by exploiting the richest and most accessible deposits and now has to work harder for poorer results.

New mines, an illusory solution

Faced with this reality, opening new mines seems to be the most obvious solution. In theory, the Earth’s crust contains enough metals to last for several centuries, and exploration technologies make it possible to identify deposits that are deep or located in previously inaccessible areas.
Several flagship projects, from the Kamoa-Kakula mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo to the Andean copper and nickel deposits in New Caledonia, promise massive production.

But the operational reality is quite different: it takes an average of more than fifteen years between the discovery of a deposit and its entry into production. In fact, geological studies, environmental assessments, negotiations with local communities and initial investments (often running into billions of dollars) slow down the process considerably. Fifteen years to meet an urgent need: that is the paradox of industrial planning.

When society says no to mining

Furthermore, mining development is increasingly facing social and environmental resistance. Local populations oppose projects that threaten their water resources, agricultural land or cultural sites. Indeed, the communities concerned often prefer drinking water to promises of economic development.
As a result, the Tía María project in Peru, the Pebble project in Alaska and the Montagne d’Or project in French Guiana have all been blocked by citizen protests. In addition, regulatory requirements are becoming stricter, imposing more stringent standards for effluent treatment and waste management. These legitimate constraints increase costs and lengthen lead times.

Energy, the Achilles heel of mining production

Mining already accounts for around 8% of global energy consumption. And this proportion is increasing as ore grades decline, because processing twice as much ore requires twice as much energy.

Some estimates suggest that the energy cost of copper production could double by 2040, undermining some of the climate benefits of transport electrification.
Ironically, we are consuming more energy to produce the metals that are supposed to free us from it.

Innovation and recycling as safety valves

Fortunately, artificial intelligence is now improving the accuracy of geological exploration. In addition, in situ leaching processes are reducing the need for excavation, while recycling is advancing, with recovery rates approaching 50% for copper.

The circular economy could therefore provide up to 30% of the future supply of certain critical metals. But we must be clear-headed: even combining these advances, supply will remain below rapidly growing demand.

Changing the paradigm

Clearly, the development of new mines, although essential, will not be enough to offset the continuing decline in mineral grades and the exponential increase in demand.

This impasse therefore requires a complete overhaul of our relationship with resources, demanding greater restraint in product design, longer product lifespans and increased standardisation to promote recycling.

Energy adaptation cannot be achieved without a parallel transition to a truly regenerative economy, where the exploitation of virgin resources becomes the exception rather than the norm.

The challenge remains to convince a civilisation based on perpetual growth to embrace voluntary moderation.

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