Investment

Conséquences économiques: cinq pistes pour s’adapter à la guerre

by Angel Sanz

Cinq pistes pour s’adapter à la guerre

Comment repositionner les portefeuilles dans le nouvel environnement post-invasion russe de l’Ukraine.

L’invasion russe de l’Ukraine a et aura des conséquences importantes sur l’échiquier politique mondial pendant au moins une génération. L’Europe est plus unie que jamais, la Russie est considérée comme un paria parmi les pays démocratiques développés et la sécurité énergétique devient une priorité absolue pour les pays européens… Quelles sont les conséquences économiques et financières concrètes de cette situation inédite et comment les investisseurs peuvent-ils réagir pour tenir compte de ce nouvel environnement?

SI VIS PACEM, PARA BELLUM

Première conséquence négative à long terme: la période des «dividendes de la paix» est terminée. Comme le disaient déjà les Romains il y a 2000 ans, «si tu veux la paix, prépare la guerre». De fait, l’Allemagne et l’Italie ont déjà annoncé une augmentation significative de leurs budgets de défense et d’autres pays devraient leur emboîter le pas. Ces investissements pour la paix réduiront d’autant les montants disponibles pour financer d’autres objectifs. Opportunités d’investissement: les valeurs traditionnelles de la défense et les entreprises de cybersécurité.

ÉVITER LES VALORISATIONS ÉLEVÉES

Le deuxième impact négatif (dans ce cas, à plus brève échéance) est l’augmentation très rapide des prix de nombreuses matières premières, qui pèsera à court terme sur la croissance du PIB et fera grimper l’inflation. Toutefois, les marchés à terme tendent à montrer que, dans un ou deux ans, cet impact pourrait avoir disparu car les prix des matières premières devraient finir par revenir à leurs niveaux antérieurs. Quoi qu’il en soit, l’augmentation attendue des taux d’inflation poussera les banques centrales à durcir leur politique monétaire. En conséquence : les valeurs à très forte croissance affichant des valorisations élevées seront à éviter.

Les approches d’investissement ESG conservent tout leur intérêt malgré la guerre.

PRIVILÉGIER LA SÉCURITÉ ÉNERGÉTIQUE

A court, moyen et long terme, l’effet le plus important sera l’accélération de la recherche d’une sécurité énergétique (qui pourrait devenir le nouvel «ES» de l’investissement ESG?) dans certains pays pour réduire leur dépendance au pétrole et au gaz russes. Lors de la crise pétrolière des années 1970, après l’embargo sur le pétrole arabe, de nombreux pays avaient commencé à investir dans leur parc nucléaire afin d’améliorer leur indépendance énergétique. Cette fois-ci, nous prévoyons une accélération des investissements dans les énergies éolienne et solaire, le stockage par batteries, les technologies liées à l’hydrogène et à l’ammoniaque, la séquestration du carbone, les réacteurs nucléaires de petite taille, les dispositifs d’économie d’énergie, les matériaux d’isolation et d’autres technologies liées aux énergies plus propres. Ces tendances offrent une opportunité unique d’investir à la fois sur les marchés publics et privés.

POUR SE DONNER BONNE MINE

Pour contribuer à l’objectif d’une «énergie plus propre», il faudra également recourir aux «métaux de décarbonation», c’est-à-dire le cuivre, le lithium, les terres rares, le zinc, l’aluminium ou encore le cobalt. Les sociétés minières dans cet univers sont donc à préférer.

L’IMPORTANT, C’EST TOUJOURS LA SANTÉ

Les sociétés du secteur de la santé seront elles aussi à privilégier pour plusieurs raisons: (1) elles sont défensives dans un environnement de ralentissement de la croissance du PIB, (2) elles ne souffrent pas trop de la hausse des prix des matières premières, (3) elles bénéficient de perspectives de croissance à long terme avec le vieillissement de la population, et enfin (4) les valorisations des sociétés pharmaceutiques sont très attractives et celles des fournisseurs d’équipement médical sont raisonnables.

En guise de conclusion, il est important de dire que les approches d’investissement ESG conservent tout leur intérêt malgré la guerre. Nous recherchons ainsi des entreprises qui enregistreront de bonnes performances, tout en se souciant des aspects environnementaux, sociaux et de gouvernance, et n’avons à ce jour exclu aucune entreprise en raison de la nature de ses activités.

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