Investment

Commentaire de marché – Juillet

by Pierre Mouton

Commentaire de marché – Juillet

« Whose Side Are You On? » – Matt Bianco, 1984

Êtes-vous du côté des optimistes ou des pessimistes? Ou plutôt du côté de ceux incapables de se positionner?

Jusqu’à présent, le déroulement de l’année 2022 plaide plutôt en faveur des pessimistes, mais les optimistes peuvent tout à fait rétorquer que juillet 2022 est le meilleur mois du S&P 500 depuis novembre 2020 (lorsque Pfizer et BioNTech avaient annoncé un vaccin contre la Covid). Quant à ceux qui n’en ont aucune idée, ils peuvent arguer que – finalement – les marchés ont été à peu près étals sur juin-juillet 2022, le mois de juin ayant été épouvantable.

De nombreux éléments sont à prendre en compte, et tous donnent des arguments à l’un ou l’autre camp: l’inflation est élevée, mais devrait se normaliser dans la mesure où les banques centrales semblent agir vite; le désordre règne sur le plan géopolitique avec non seulement le conflit russo-ukrainien, mais aussi les tensions accrues entre les États-Unis et la Chine concernant Taïwan; la dette des entreprises et des particuliers ne semble pas poser de problème, mais la dette publique des pays développés est gigantesque; jusqu’à présent, les publications de résultats sont étonnamment solides, mais une dégradation marquée est attendue; les matières premières n’évoluent pas de manière synchronisée, mais la Russie semble vouloir renforcer ses menaces concernant les livraisons de gaz en Europe pour cet hiver, ce qui entraînerait une flambée des prix. Compte tenu de la simultanéité de ces facteurs, il est difficile de choisir son camp et on comprend pourquoi de nombreux experts changent d’avis, en fonction du déroulé des événements.

Sous l’effet de publications de résultats convaincantes et d’un regain d’appétit pour le risque, les marchés actions se sont inscrits en forte hausse en juillet: le MSCI World a gagné +7,86%, le S&P 500 +9,11%, le Nasdaq +12,55%, le MSCI Europe +7,52% et le Topix +3,71%. Seuls les marchés émergents ont cédé du terrain (-0,69%). Avec la baisse des rendements nominaux et réels, les valeurs de croissance ont surperformé les valeurs de rendement (value): +11,51% pour le MSCI World Growth contre +4,44% pour son homologue Value.

Malgré la multiplicité des risques, le crédit a également progressé (+3,06% pour l’Itraxx Crossover), et les rendements des emprunts d’État ont baissé (-36pb pour le 10 ans américain, -52pb pour l’Allemagne); l’or et le pétrole ont reculé de 2,29% et 6,75% respectivement, et l’euro s’est encore déprécié face au dollar (-2,51%), pénalisé par le spectre d’une crise énergétique en Europe et un différentiel de taux d’intérêt défavorable.

 

 

 

 

 

Les performances passées ne garantissent pas les résultats futurs. Les opinions, stratégies et instruments financiers décrits dans le présent document peuvent ne pas convenir à tous les investisseurs. Les opinions énoncées sont celles valables à la date de publication de ce document. Toute référence aux indices de marches ou composites, indices de référence, ou autres mesures de performance relative des marches a une certaine période sont indiquées à titre d’information. NS Partners ne donne aucune garantie et n’est aucunement responsable de l’exactitude et de l’exhaustivité de l’ensemble des informations (données financières de marche, cours de bourse, avis de recherche ou description de tout autre instrument financier) contenus dans ce document. Le présent document n’est pas destiné aux personnes ou entités qui seraient citoyennes ou résidentes d’un lieu, état, pays ou juridiction dans lesquels sa distribution, sa publication, sa mise à disposition ou son utilisation seraient contraires aux lois ou règlements en vigueur. Les informations et données fournies dans le présent document sont communiquées à titre indicatif uniquement et ne constituent ni une offre, ni une incitation à acheter, vendre ou souscrire a des titres ou tout autre instrument financier. Il est fait référence dans ce document a des fonds d’investissement qui n’ont pas été enregistrés auprès de la Finma et ne peuvent donc pas être distribues en ou depuis la suisse sauf à certaines catégories d’investisseurs éligibles. Certaines des sociétés du groupe NS Partners ou ses clients peuvent être détenteurs d’une position dans les instruments financiers de l’un des émetteurs mentionnes dans ce document, ou agir en tant que consultant pour l’un d’eux. Des informations supplémentaires sont disponibles sur demande. © Groupe NS Partners

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Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
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