Investment

Commentaires de marché du mois de janvier

by Pierre Mouton

Commentaires de marché du mois de janvier

“C’est comme ça” – Les Rita Mitsouko, 1986.

Ça monte et ça baisse, et «c’est comme ça». La plupart des marchés se sont inscrits en hausse en janvier, après un mois de décembre très éprouvant, mais si l’on se projette à un peu plus long terme, on constate que les marchés ont terminé janvier 2023 à quelques encablures des niveaux atteints fin juillet 2022. Cette période a été jalonnée de très bons et de très mauvais mois, leur caractéristique commune ayant été une volatilité très élevée, l’indice MSCI World ayant évolué de plus de 4% à la hausse ou à la baisse chaque mois depuis juillet 2022. La volatilité reste donc élevée alors que la situation a radicalement changé depuis la période 2017-2021, mais «c’est comme ça»…

Les raisons de ce changement d’environnement sont bien connues: flambée d’inflation, remontée des taux d’intérêt, resserrement des politiques monétaires, hausse des prix des matières premières, perturbations des chaînes d’approvisionnement et guerre en Ukraine. Sans oublier qu’au début 2022, les marchés actions, obligataires et du crédit affichaient des valorisations très élevées. Si les marchés du crédit ont depuis subi une correction, ils ne sont toujours pas «bon marché» aujourd’hui. La volatilité devrait donc persister encore quelque temps et les statistiques économiques et les décisions des banques centrales seront à coup sûr scrutées de près.

Mais profitons encore de la fête: le S&P 500 a progressé de 6,2% en janvier, grâce notamment à ses composantes des technologies de l’information et des services de communication. Dans ce contexte, le Nasdaq a gagné 10,6% et le MSCI World Growth 9,7% (contre «seulement» 4,6% pour l’indice MSCI World Value). Les marchés européens et émergents se sont bien comportés (+6,7% et +7,9%, respectivement), mais le Japon est resté un peu à la traîne (malgré une hausse de 4,4%).

Le mois s’est également révélé favorable aux titres obligataires et au crédit, puisque les rendements à 10 ans des États-Unis et de l’Allemagne ont baissé de 37 et 29 pb respectivement et que l’Itraxx Crossover a gagné 3%. Dans le sillage de la baisse des rendements et de la dépréciation du dollar (-1,5% par rapport à l’euro), l’or a grimpé de 5,7%, tandis que le prix du pétrole a reculé de 1,7%.

 

 

 

Les performances passées ne garantissent pas les résultats futurs. Les opinions, stratégies et instruments financiers décrits dans le présent document peuvent ne pas convenir à tous les investisseurs. Les opinions énoncées sont celles valables à la date de publication de ce document. Toute référence aux indices de marches ou composites, indices de référence, ou autres mesures de performance relative des marches a une certaine période sont indiquées à titre d’information. NS Partners ne donne aucune garantie et n’est aucunement responsable de l’exactitude et de l’exhaustivité de l’ensemble des informations (données financières de marche, cours de bourse, avis de recherche ou description de tout autre instrument financier) contenus dans ce document. Le présent document n’est pas destiné aux personnes ou entités qui seraient citoyennes ou résidentes d’un lieu, état, pays ou juridiction dans lesquels sa distribution, sa publication, sa mise à disposition ou son utilisation seraient contraires aux lois ou règlements en vigueur. Les informations et données fournies dans le présent document sont communiquées à titre indicatif uniquement et ne constituent ni une offre, ni une incitation à acheter, vendre ou souscrire a des titres ou tout autre instrument financier. Il est fait référence dans ce document a des fonds d’investissement qui n’ont pas été enregistrés auprès de la Finma et ne peuvent donc pas être distribues en ou depuis la suisse sauf à certaines catégories d’investisseurs éligibles. Certaines des sociétés du groupe NS Partners ou ses clients peuvent être détenteurs d’une position dans les instruments financiers de l’un des émetteurs mentionnes dans ce document, ou agir en tant que consultant pour l’un d’eux. Des informations supplémentaires sont disponibles sur demande. © Groupe NS Partners

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