November 2025 Market Comments: The narrative around AI continues to be the major force driving markets moves

NOVEMber 2025 Market Comments

“Turn every stone”, Lalo Schifrin, 1969

It’s indeed necessary so far in 2025 to turn every stone to find an asset class that has not delivered positive returns. From credit to developed or emerging markets equities, not to mention Gold, Value or Growth, everything flashes green, and November, although a tad less buoyant, was no exception. Turning two pebbles would uncover the outliers, which are Oil and the Bitcoin (respectively down 18.4% and 2.7% year to date in USD), the latter having been hammered in November in particular (-16.7%).

The narrative around AI continues to be the major (the only?) force driving markets moves. To wit, after having surpassed the 5 trillion market cap threshold only a few weeks ago, Nvidia’s share price fell more than 12% and wiped out more than 540 billion in market value. So what? A flurry of positive news propelled Alphabet’s share price by more than 13%, translating into a $470 billion surge in market cap… Even credit markets dance on the tempo imposed by AI, illustrated by Oracle’s exploding CDS after the technology giant announced an avalanche of new debt issuance to finance its AI ambitions.

The real economy does not seem fully in line with the markets’ optimism. Increasingly, commentators are referring to the now-(in)famous K-shaped recovery among consumers — a widening wealth gap between those who are thriving in this turbulent environment and those who feel increasingly left behind. The surge in populism seen in most Western nations is a clear outcome: inflation hits people very differently depending on their income bracket, breeding frustration and unrest among the hardest-pressed.

With most governments already heavily indebted and still running large deficits, finding a solution to this problem becomes even more complicated.
Close, but no cigar for the bears: the MSCI World added a meagre 0.18% in November, while the S&P500 grappled 13 basis points; Europe did well with +0.8% for the Stoxx 600, and China and Emerging Markets gave back some of the previous gains (-2.5% for both). In a more volatile month, Value outperformed Growth by a comfortable margin (+1.9% versus -1.3%) and credit, despite some idiosyncratic spread widening from here to there, posted another strong month with +0.8% for the Itraxx Crossover. Gold’s unstoppable rise doesn’t seem to fade, as the shiny stuff powered ahead again: up 5.9% for the month and 61.5% for the year. Uneven consumer sentiment and higher probabilities of Venezuelan’s oil coming back to the market pressured the WTI again; it was down 4% in November, and is now down 18.4% in 2025.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group