November General Markets Comments

by Pierre Mouton

November General Markets Comments

“Don’t Stop” – Fleetwood Mac, 1977. A tribute to the late Christine McVie (1943-2022).

“Don’t stop” is what we all would like to say to markets after two very good months in a row, for the first time this year. For the record, the MSCI World has risen close to 14% since the end of September, the last time such a spectacular return happened on a two- month timeframe was in November and December 2020, right after Pfizer-BioNTech made public they had a vaccine against Covid.

The multifarious causes behind such a strong rebound are, first and foremost, the Fed and interest rates: inflation numbers published at the beginning of the month in the US seem to indicate that peak inflation might be behind us, which Jerome Powell more or less whispered in his November 30th speech. Long-term government bond yields consequently fell, offering some support to valuations. There are also some hopes among the investment community that China’s zero-Covid policies prove too much of a burden on the population for the government to maintain them without stymieing social calm; should China loosen its harsh sanitary measures, global growth would benefit from some relief on the supply-chain side and increased consumption in the country. Finally, as the Q3 earnings reports have all been published, markets now focus on the guidance provided by the corporate world, which, in general, was not that bad. Finally, the FTX debacle brings the opportunity to highlight some great Fleetwood Mac songs, as the “Little Lies” of Mr SBF did not provoke any “Landslide”, nor did it break “The Chain” in traditional markets; you can “Go Your Own Way”, Mr SBF.

The MSCI World added 6.8% last month, the S&P500 5.4% and the MSCI Europe 6.7%; but the star of the month was the MSCI Emerging Markets, which soared 14.6% (but is still down 21.1% in 2022); for once, Growth did not outperform Value in a month of falling interest rates, quite an unusual fact. Fixed income and credit markets also enjoyed the rally: the US and German10-year yields respectively fell 44 and 21 bps, and the Itraxx Crossover recouped almost half of its yearly losses with a 4.5% rise. Oil fell again (-6.9%), and Gold returned 8.3%, buoyed by falling real yields.





Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views, strategies and financial instruments described in this document may not be suitable for all investors. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of date(s) appearing in this material only. References to market or composite indices, benchmarks or other measures of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only. NS PARTNERS SA provides no warranty and makes no representation of any kind whatsoever regarding the accuracy and completeness of any data, including financial market data or other financial instruments referred to in this general comment. This document does not constitute an offer or solicitation to any person in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Any reference in this document to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell those securities. References in this document to investment funds that have not been registered with the FINMA cannot be distributed in or from Switzerland except to certain categories of eligible investors. Some of the entities of the NS Partners Group or its clients may hold a position in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein, or act as advisor to any such issuer. Additional information is available on request. © NS Partners Group

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Antonio Mira

Antonio Mira joined NS Partners in 2006 as Group Chief Financial Officer. He heads the corporate functions and is involved in coordinating and implementing the decisions of the Executive Committee.
An experienced bank auditor, Antonio started his career in 1995 with Arthur Andersen, where he worked for some 7 years before joining Ernst & Young in 2002 as a Senior Manager.
Antonio is a Swiss chartered accountant and a Business graduate of Lausanne University (HEC).

Sébastien Poiret

Sébastien Poiret joined NS Partners in 2008 and manages funds of hedge funds and private client mandates. He also oversees the development of the Group’s offices in Mauritius.

Prior to joining NS Partners, he served as a Trader, Head of Manager research and Portfolio Manager in the USA and Switzerland for a single hedge fund (1998-2004) and for Optimal (2004-2008), Grupo Santander’s fund-of-hedge funds operations.

Sébastien holds a Bachelor’s degree in Corporate Finance from the ESPEME Business School (EDHEC Group) and an MBA in Finance and Economics from the Institute of Business Administration, both in Nice.

Abir Oreibi

Abir Oreibi joined the Board of the NS Partners Group in 2018, where she brings her truly international perspective and rich experience.
Among many other ventures, Abir set up’s first European office. After living and working in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Bangkok and London, she now lives in Geneva, where she is CEO of Lift Events, an organization that identifies technology trends, their business and social impact through the organization of events and open innovation programs. Issues related to the challenges and opportunities created by new technologies as well as the strategic responses from organizations are at the heart of Lift’s activities.
Abir holds a BA in Political Sciences from the University of Geneva. She is an investor, and member of advisory and innovation boards.

Romain Pidoux, CAIA

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Romain Pidoux joined NS Partners in 2011 and heads the Group’s Risk Management.
He started his financial career in 2005 as Head of Quantitative Analysis for a Swiss Family Office, selecting funds and managing portfolio allocation. In 2008, he switched to the alternative world and joined Peak Partners as hedge funds analyst.
He is a Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA) and holds a Master’s degree in international relations from the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva University.

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